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First harvest

How much honey to leave the bees

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The supers are the surplus. What is underneath them is the colony's food for a winter you cannot see the length of yet, and the arithmetic only runs one way: what you take is what they do not have.

Three university extension services answer this question and they give three different answers. That is not sloppiness, and understanding why is more useful than any of the numbers.

What the sources actually say

Colorado State University Extension
Leave 80 to 100 pounds of honey in the hive for the bees to feed on through winter.
University of Georgia Extension
Colonies should weigh at least 100 pounds in late fall. If they are light on stores, feed a heavy syrup at two parts sugar to one part water.
Penn State Extension
Three medium boxes with bottom board, inner cover and lid weigh about 60 pounds empty. Aim for 120 pounds total, which is roughly 60 pounds of stored food.

Why they disagree

They are not measuring the same thing. Colorado is counting honey. Penn State is counting total hive weight and telling you what the empty woodenware weighs so you can subtract it. Georgia is also counting total weight, at a different figure.

Read carelessly that looks like 60 pounds against 100. Read properly, Penn State's 120 pound total and Georgia's 100 pound colony are answering the question you can actually test, which is what the hive weighs when you tip it. Colorado's 80 to 100 is answering what is inside it.

And they are written for different winters. A colony in Colorado clusters longer than one in Georgia and eats accordingly. The variation is not noise in the sources, it is the answer genuinely varying, and any page that hands you one national number has hidden that from you.

This is the page where being wrong costs you the colony. A hive that runs out of stores in February does not recover, and you will not find out until you open it in spring. If your winter is longer or colder than the source you are reading, err heavy. Fall syrup is cheap. A dead-out is not.

Weigh it, do not count it

Counting capped frames is a poor instrument. Frames vary, comb depth varies, and you are estimating a weight by looking at it.

Lift the back of the hive off its stand instead. Five seconds of that tells you more than an inspection will, and it is the measurement all three sources are ultimately proxies for. If you want a number to compare against, subtract what your own empty equipment weighs, which is around 60 pounds for three mediums on a bottom board with an inner cover and lid.

A luggage scale hooked under the back edge turns this from a judgment into a reading, for about fifteen dollars.

When to decide

Late enough that the bees have finished bringing anything in, so you are weighing the real total rather than a total still being added to. Early enough that syrup can still be taken down and cured, because bees will not process syrup in cold weather and a full feeder in November is just a wet box.

That window is narrower than people expect and it moves with your climate, which is the same reason the three sources differ.

If they are light

Feed a heavy syrup at two parts sugar to one part water, which is the Georgia recommendation and the standard fall ratio. Heavy syrup is closer to finished stores and takes less work from the colony to cure than the thin spring mix.

And take less honey. The extra frame you leave on the hive is worth far less than the colony that survives to build you a full season next year.

Then the harvest question

Take these in order. What you have available to sell is what is left after the colony is provisioned, not the other way round. Once that is settled, check whether the supers are actually ready.

References

Colorado State University Extension. Meant to Bee: Overwintering Strategies for Bees. extension.colostate.edu
University of Georgia Extension. Honey Bees and Beekeeping (B1045). extension.uga.edu
Penn State Extension. Honey Bee Management Throughout the Seasons. extension.psu.edu
Written from published extension guidance, not from a laboratory. Local climate, local forage and the state of your particular colony override anything general said here. Verify anything that matters for your own bees.