Pressure change
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Where the cycles come from
A hold at altitude, a drive or a walk over a pass, and a pack left in the sun. Each changes the pressure inside a sealed container relative to outside it.
Which direction the failure goes
Both. Internal pressure pushes contents past a liner on the way up, and the partial vacuum on the way down draws air and sometimes water in.
The liner is what fails
Not the bottle and usually not the thread. 11 liners and sealing discs on this shelf, and the liner is the component nobody specifies on an order.
A plain cap beats a dispensing closure here
A flip top or a disc top has a moving part and a seal that works by being pressed shut. A continuous thread cap with a good liner is a simpler object with fewer ways to leak.
Which is why the shelf is not a problem
369 continuous thread closures against an archetype that asked for flip, disc, pump and mist. For a decant going in a pack, the plain cap is the better answer anyway.
Headspace makes it worse
Air expands and liquid does not, so a half-full bottle has more to push with than a full one. Filling a decant properly is a leak control.
Test it in a bag, not on a bench
Fill, seal, put it in a sealed clear bag, take it through a flight or a simulated altitude cycle and look at the bag. Anything that escaped is in the bag.
And then test it on its side, warm
Because a pack is horizontal as often as not and a tent in afternoon sun is hot. Those two together find the failures a pressure test alone misses.
A bag is the belt to the closure's braces
No closure is certain. A decant inside a small sealed bag is how experienced hikers carry anything that would ruin the trip, and it costs a gram.
Which is the honest recommendation
Buy the plain cap, specify the liner, fill it full, and bag it. Four things, none of which is a better bottle.